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Dodik travels to Moscow, yet receives money from the European Union

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A megjelenés dátuma

2023.06.05.

Írta

Márton András

Dodik pénzt kap az EU-tól / Dodik travels to Moscow and receives money from the EU

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Olvasási idő: 6 perc

The European Commission has lifted the suspension it imposed last year on the disbursement of EU funds intended for the Bosnian Serb Republic. Milorad Dodik, the president of the Bosnian Serb entity, expressed his gratitude to his coalition partners for their support in this matter, while the entity he leads is experiencing worsening economic conditions. The upcoming repayment of bonds issued on the Vienna Stock Exchange this year may force Dodik to take on additional significant loans. It is possible that he will seek assistance in Hungary as well.

In Brussels, they loosened their grip

Milorad Dodik, the president of the Bosnian Serb Republic, achieved a significant result on Friday, as the EU revoked the suspension of EU-funded development projects in the Serbian entity.

The disbursement of EU funds intended for the Bosnian Serb Republic had been suspended since February last year, as the EU Commission sought to exert pressure on Dodik’s Independent Social Democrats Alliance (Savez Nezavisnih Socijaldemokrata, SNSD) due to their secessionist tendencies.

Although the European Union did not impose sanctions on Bosnian Serb political leaders at that time, the Commission ordered the freezing of all projects receiving EU support.

It was already known at the time of the halt in investments, mostly related to infrastructure development, that the Serbian entity, burdened by significant debt due to bonds issued on international stock exchanges, would not be able to compensate for the resulting shortfall from its own budget.

In May of this year, several Bosnian newspapers reported that the leadership of the Bosnian Serb Republic could be in trouble if they do not find new external funding to finance their accumulated external debt.

While the risk of technical bankruptcy is not discussed in Banja Luka, it can be assumed that the EU, in plain terms, “didn’t let Dodik off the hook” and resumed the disbursement of previously frozen financial assets.

According to experts knowledgeable in the Bosnian financial sector, the EU’s restart of programs has provided a lifeline to the otherwise grim state of the Bosnian Serb economy.

However, experts agreed that the influx of EU funds alone will not be sufficient to ensure the necessary growth for financing external debt. This is because its impact does not generate enough additional GDP growth in the Bosnian Serb Republic to break free from the debt spiral.

One may ask, why did Brussels yield?

The answer, according to many, is that this step was a significant gesture towards the Bosnian Serb region on the brink of international isolation and economic collapse.

Dodik, in turn, has only earned this by fulfilling the coalition agreement he made with the Croatian Democratic Community of Bosnia and Herzegovina (Hrvatska Demokratska Zajednica Bosne i Hercegovine, HDZ BiH) and the left-wing Bosnian party alliance known as the “troika” until now.

Troubles within the coalition arise

The importance of restarting EU programs is also reflected in Dodik himself expressing gratitude, in front of the press, to Elmedin Konaković, the Bosnian Minister of Foreign Affairs, for consistently keeping the issue of restarting frozen projects in the Serbian entity on the agenda during his visits to Brussels this year.

On the right, Elmedin Konaković, the Bosnian Minister of Foreign Affairs, plays the role of a helpful lobbyist, while on the left, Milorad Dodik, the president of the Bosnian Serb Republic, needs to be connected to a financial infusion

Simultaneously with the announcement of the financial good news, Denis Bečirović, the Bosnian member of the Bosnia and Herzegovina Presidency, also held negotiations with members of the Western Balkans Working Group of the European Parliament in Brussels.

Bečirović’s participation in the meeting caused significant disruption within the communication machinery of the Bosnian government coalition. This was because the member of the presidency asked the present EU representatives to impose further sanctions against Dodik, and he described the continuation of the disbursement of EU financial assets as a “terribly bad step.”

Regarding Bečirović’s stance against Dodik, it is worth noting that in previous years, he has repeatedly accused the top Bosnian Serb leader of separatist tendencies and violating the principles of the Dayton Agreement.

His recent actions were particularly uncomfortable for his own party, the Social Democratic Party (Socijaldemokratska Stranka, SDP), as this position completely contradicted the coalition government’s stance, including that of his own party, regarding EU funds.

Although there haven’t been similar levels of communication discord among some players within the five-party government coalition in the past, and the government seemingly continued its work uninterrupted, strong figures within the coalition parties often make comments that indicate underlying tension.

When it comes to separate communication, the SDP takes the lead, as several prominent members sharply criticize the work of the coalition partners organized on the basis of two ethnicities, the Bosnian Serb SNSD and the Croatian HDZ BiH.

The ‘unique word scattering’ observed in the communication of the SDP can be traced back to the fact that the Yugoslav state party’s successor organization in Bosnia, in addition to its traditional center-left orientation, has sought to broaden its support among progressive and neo-Marxist youth groups. These groups find it difficult to accept that the SDP, which represents a multiethnic and atheist approach they support, formed an alliance with the Bosnian Serb and Croatian conservative political forces that were continuously criticized in the previous cycle.

Dodik needs to pay (or should pay)

Regardless of the opening of EU funds, the economic situation of the Bosnian Serb Republic is difficult to assess positively.

The maturity dates of entity bonds issued on the London and Vienna stock exchanges are approaching, and their repayment will pose a significant burden on the budget of the Serb entity.

The numbers speak for themselves.

This year, the Serb entity has a bond-based debt obligation of approximately 1,099 million BAM (convertible mark), which amounts to 208 billion Hungarian forints. In addition, the government of the Bosnian Serb Republic has to pay an additional 900 million BAM (170 billion Hungarian forints) this year based on other commitments.

A significant portion of these obligations is related to certain infrastructure investments. From this year’s upcoming debt pile, a portion of the Bosnian Serb bonds issued on the Vienna Stock Exchange in previous years will mature in June. After this, the Serb entity will have to pay approximately 400 million BAM (75 billion Hungarian forints).

Dodik nyakló nélkül veszi fel a hiteleket

To ensure the financing of the mentioned debt, the Bosnian Serb Republic received a loan of 180 million BAM (34 billion Hungarian forints) from Hungary.

We have previously reported in detail about this transaction and the support program provided by the Hungarian government to Bosnian Serb agricultural entrepreneurs.

According to news reports in the Bosnian press, in order to continue rolling over the high external debt, Dodik may be preparing, or rather, be forced to take on another loan of approximately 2 billion BAM (380 billion Hungarian forints) in the near future.

Most analysts link this future transaction, which has so far been only speculation, to the Chinese development funds that are still leading in the Western Balkans region, due to the drying up of Russian resources. However, it is also possible that Dodik may once again knock on Budapest’s door for a little injection of funds.

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English

Vučić is less willing to ask KFOR for the northern areas. Elections on December 17?

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a megjelenés dátuma

2023.09.28.

Írta

Varga Szilveszter

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Olvasási idő: 5 perc

The Serbian President gave a tense interview to the Serbian state television (RTS) about the events in Banjska and other current issues. For example, Aleksandar Vučić criticized the channel for broadcasting drone footage of the events on Sunday, which had been posted on the internet by the Kosovar Minister of Interior. The provocative presidential behavior was not directed at a specific host but rather at the institution itself. The Serbian President had a similarly dismissive attitude toward another host in the past.

They had been preparing for the rebellion for a year

President Aleksandar Vučić, in an interview on RTS’s “Oko” program, stated that the Kosovo Serbs were mourning only their own dead, while Serbia commemorated all killed Serbs and the murdered Kosovar police officer on Wednesday. He explained that, according to the Serbian constitution, which regards Kosovo as part of Serbia, they are all Serbian citizens.

This was a strong start, as the photographs of the Kosovar Albanian police officers were not displayed at Serbian memorials, certainly not at the St. Sava Temple in Belgrade, and Serbian media did not communicate this to the audience.

There were only three photos at the Church of St. Sava in Belgrade (Screenshot)

He also added that, for him, the killed Serbs would “never be terrorists” but rather family people.

The Serbian President denied the claim by Kosovo’s Minister of Interior that Aleksandar Vulin’s bodyguard, or someone who served as his bodyguard, died in the attack. In fact, the man allegedly served as a security officer for the current director of the Security Information Agency ten years ago.

Vučić also revealed that he has had information for a year that Kosovo (and Metohija) Serbs were preparing for resistance, as they had erected barricades more than a year ago.

– The situation is hot, call it whatever you want, the church, you or me. Kurti did it; he united the Serbs

– the Serbian President said. He also noted that the Kosovo Prime Minister had turned everyone against him, and as a result, they would all fight against him, even if they all perish, but they won’t “board the tractor,” meaning they won’t leave their homeland.

Vučić pointed out that Albin Kurti, the Kosovo Prime Minister, systematically targeted and destroyed the Serbian people because he hates them.

The Serbian president also spoke about the fact that Milan Radoičić, the vice-president of the Serbian List, who was accused of leading the group, never hid it and was not ashamed of his role, so he must be willing to be interrogated by the Serbian authorities, because he is in Central Serbia and thus available to the authorities. Vučić also revealed that Radoičić was not injured.

However, he said that one of the Serbian victims was shot in the head at point-blank range, which is known in Serbia as “overa” (control), and the Serbian president also used this term.

The relationship with KFOR is correct

The Serbian President also discussed the role of international organizations. He mentioned that EULEX was not allowed near the events because not only Kosovo people but also people from the Presevo Valley, known to the Serbian police, were present at the scene.

Regarding communication between the Serbian Army and the KFOR headquarters, Vučić said it was correct because Angelo Michele Ristuccia, the KFOR commander, is a serious person.

Belgrád sokkal aktívabb szerepet vár a KFOR-tól, amelyben több száz magyar katona teljesít szolgálatot

However, there appears to be a difference in opinion between the Serbian President and the Serbian Minister of Defense, Miloš Vučević. The latter stated that communication between Serbia and KFOR had been reduced to “elementary technical levels.”

Vučić responded to the demands of Serbian Foreign Minister Ivica Dačić and the mentioned Minister of Defense that KFOR take over security in the northern areas. He stated that he could not guarantee the feasibility of this and that Serbs would get along with KFOR because, at least, KFOR wouldn’t break into their homes.

For those with a slightly better memory, they will surely recall that the Serbian President wrote on Instagram just two days ago that he had asked the Quinta Ambassadorial Group to have KFOR take care of all security issues in Northern Kosovo instead of “Kurti’s police.”1

Regarding this, the Serbian President presented another scenario and suggested attempting dialogue to compel Kurti to establish the Community of Serbian Municipalities (Zajednica Srpskih Opština, ZSO), which would place the police under Serbian control, and Serbian police officers would take charge of matters.

The Serbian President believes this is why Kurti does not want to fulfill this Serbian demand, even though the people are on the brink of rebellion.

Vučić may or may not fulfill it

The Serbian President appears to be planning to hold early elections not in March or February but as early as December 17 or possibly December 23, complying with opposition demands.

He plans to hold various local elections at that time, despite the opposition’s specific request to hold only the Belgrade elections alongside the early elections and not to include regional or local elections.

Regarding some of the opposition’s election demands, the Serbian President stated that he fully accepted opposition proposals, but as the previous sentence suggests, this is not entirely true.

Vučić did not rule out that he would lead the Serbian Progressive Party’s list if asked, which, as previously noted here on BALK, is quite inappropriate given his position as the President of all Serbian citizens.

Aleksandar Vučić, the Serbian President, also reported that a new indictment has been filed against Vojislav Šešelj in The Hague. He emphasized that the indictment was filed against Šešelj and four others for contempt of court.