English
The center-left opposition would bring Serbia into the EU by 2030, but would not recognize Kosovo
Ide kattintva meghallgathatod a cikket (kettő az egyben)The center-left opposition party, the Freedom and Justice Party (Stranka slobode i pravde, SSP), has adopted a statement declaring their commitment to bringing Serbia into the European Union by 2030. The party leader, Dragan Đilas, stated during the party’s main committee meeting that they consider this not only a goal, but a „political mission” towards future generations, and emphasized that only they can guarantee this for Serbia. However, in an interview with N1 TV, he also stated that they would not recognize Kosovo’s independence nor support its UN membership.
Are they on a political mission(?)
Đilas expressed that his party sees Serbia’s accession to the European Union not only as a goal, but as a „political mission” during the SSP’s main committee meeting.
-We can do it! Serbia in the EU by 2030! We will achieve this goal together with the citizens of Serbia
– declared the leader of the Serbian opposition party. He believes that Serbia has never been farther away from Europe than it is today, and it is therefore necessary to „reverse course” towards Europe.
Đilas indicated that his party would like to fully align Serbia’s foreign policy objectives with those of the European Union, which would also mean imposing sanctions on Russia.
– The Freedom and Justice Party remains a meeting point for all democratic, progressive, and responsible political actors in the country
– said Đilas, who accused the government of impoverishing the country’s population.
– A bad government doesn’t want a people that lives in prosperity, but rather a people that hopes to one day become prosperous because hope is all a bad government can offer in the absence of a well-functioning society
– declared Đilas, who believes that injustice has become an institutionalized category in Serbia.
Will Kosovo be recognized or not
Before Serbia can join the European Union, it must close all accession chapters with the EU, which would include the adoption of Chapter 35. This chapter includes the resolution of relations between Serbia and Kosovo, and as stated by Josep Borrell, the High
Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, it will incorporate the European (French- German) proposal accepted verbally by the Serbian President and its implementation annex.
Dragan nyilatkozik az N1 televíziónak (Forrás: Screenshot, N1)
For Serbia, the fourth point of the EU proposal is the most critical, which states that Serbia commits to not obstructing Kosovo’s membership in international organizations, including the UN.
This issue also divides the leaders of the Freedom and Justice Party.
Dragan Đilas reminded that they rejected the European (French- German) proposal regarding Kosovo, which they considered unfavorable. However, it has been proven that its adoption has already occurred with the verbal consent of the Serbian President.
The opposition leader suggested that a method of implementation must be devised that does not compromise Serbian interests.
– I believe that no one from Serbia can or should recognize Kosovo as an independent state, and no one from Serbia should raise their hand in favor of Kosovo’s admission to the UN
– said the opposition leader in a statement to the N1 television channel, although his deputy took a different stance on the matter.
– The European proposal is an integral part of Chapter 35 and therefore the accession negotiations, and whoever is in power must comply with it, there is no doubt about that
– said Marinika Tepić, vice president of the Freedom and Justice Party, known for her combative opposition stance in the Serbian opposition scene, in a statement to N1 television.
Marinika Tepić nyilatkozik az N1 televíziónak (Forrás: Screenshot, N1)
The differing views may also stem from Tepić’s Romanian family roots from Pančevo, making it difficult for her to empathize with the Serbian people’s „ancient pain” regarding Kosovo.
However, Đilas is not a „true-born” Serbian himself, as his father is from Bosnia and Herzegovina, and his mother is from Croatia, having been resettled in Szilberek (Bački Brestovac) in Vojvodina after World War II.
Tough times for the center-left
These are difficult times for the left-wing in the Balkans. At the main committee meeting, Đilas said that his party is going through a „very difficult period” since last year’s elections, and pointed out that they must keep going in tough times, or it would mean failure.
Two years ago, the Serbian pro-government media ≈ propaganda machine reported that Đilas had foreign bank accounts, primarily in Mauritius.
Tal Hanan and Team Jorge
According to a report by the British Guardian, Tal Hanan participated in disinformation campaigns in several countries to manipulate elections.
The man, a former Israeli special forces operative, allegedly interfered in about 33 presidential-level elections worldwide with the help of the „Team Jorge” led by him and his brother Zohar.
The disinformation unit known as „Jorge Team” is capable of directing a huge army of thirty thousand fake profiles, or avatars, using the „Aims” software on Twitter, Facebook, Gmail, Instagram, Amazon, and Airbnb.
BALK recently reported on a Meta study which revealed that thousands of fake profiles were discovered on Facebook and Instagram, creating the illusion of popularity for Serbian President and the Serbian Progressive Party.
The news was reported by the very friendly news portal Večernje Novosti, which claimed that the opposition leader has €6.4 million stored in various Mauritius and Swiss bank accounts.
The main „warrior” of the campaign against Đilas was Siniša Mali, the Serbian Minister of Finance, who displayed documents on several friendly TV channels and urged an investigation against Đilas, who was suspected of money laundering.
The Serbian Minister of Finance accused the opposition leader of stealing the mentioned amount from the state, thus harming the people.
The case has since been settled, but the Serbian President still frequently refers to the fact that he does not have foreign bank accounts like some in the opposition.
The Serbian investigative news portal KRIK has now uncovered that the story of foreign bank accounts was invented by Israeli Tal Hanan, who produces fake news on demand to discredit his clients’ competitors during election campaigns.
In the case of Serbia, this was Dragan Đilas, who filed a criminal complaint against Aleksandar Vučić, the President, Siniša Mali, the Minister of Finance, and Večernje Novosti, but the Belgrade government prevented the case from being launched as the prosecution rejected the complaint, stating that no crime had been committed.
However, no proceedings were initiated against the accusations made against Đilas, so the media only reported on the secret accounts, which was enough to discredit the opposition leader and undermine his party in the eyes of voters.
Ide kattintva meghallgathatod a cikket (kettő az egyben)The European Commission has lifted the suspension it imposed last year on the disbursement of EU funds intended for the Bosnian Serb Republic. Milorad Dodik, the president of the Bosnian Serb entity, expressed his gratitude to his coalition partners for their support in this matter, while the entity he leads is experiencing worsening economic conditions. The upcoming repayment of bonds issued on the Vienna Stock Exchange this year may force Dodik to take on additional significant loans. It is possible that he will seek assistance in Hungary as well.
In Brussels, they loosened their grip
Milorad Dodik, the president of the Bosnian Serb Republic, achieved a significant result on Friday, as the EU revoked the suspension of EU-funded development projects in the Serbian entity.
The disbursement of EU funds intended for the Bosnian Serb Republic had been suspended since February last year, as the EU Commission sought to exert pressure on Dodik’s Independent Social Democrats Alliance (Savez Nezavisnih Socijaldemokrata, SNSD) due to their secessionist tendencies.
Although the European Union did not impose sanctions on Bosnian Serb political leaders at that time, the Commission ordered the freezing of all projects receiving EU support.
It was already known at the time of the halt in investments, mostly related to infrastructure development, that the Serbian entity, burdened by significant debt due to bonds issued on international stock exchanges, would not be able to compensate for the resulting shortfall from its own budget.
In May of this year, several Bosnian newspapers reported that the leadership of the Bosnian Serb Republic could be in trouble if they do not find new external funding to finance their accumulated external debt.
While the risk of technical bankruptcy is not discussed in Banja Luka, it can be assumed that the EU, in plain terms, „didn’t let Dodik off the hook” and resumed the disbursement of previously frozen financial assets.
According to experts knowledgeable in the Bosnian financial sector, the EU’s restart of programs has provided a lifeline to the otherwise grim state of the Bosnian Serb economy.
However, experts agreed that the influx of EU funds alone will not be sufficient to ensure the necessary growth for financing external debt. This is because its impact does not generate enough additional GDP growth in the Bosnian Serb Republic to break free from the debt spiral.
One may ask, why did Brussels yield?
The answer, according to many, is that this step was a significant gesture towards the Bosnian Serb region on the brink of international isolation and economic collapse.
Dodik, in turn, has only earned this by fulfilling the coalition agreement he made with the Croatian Democratic Community of Bosnia and Herzegovina (Hrvatska Demokratska Zajednica Bosne i Hercegovine, HDZ BiH) and the left-wing Bosnian party alliance known as the „troika” until now.
Troubles within the coalition arise
The importance of restarting EU programs is also reflected in Dodik himself expressing gratitude, in front of the press, to Elmedin Konaković, the Bosnian Minister of Foreign Affairs, for consistently keeping the issue of restarting frozen projects in the Serbian entity on the agenda during his visits to Brussels this year.
On the right, Elmedin Konaković, the Bosnian Minister of Foreign Affairs, plays the role of a helpful lobbyist, while on the left, Milorad Dodik, the president of the Bosnian Serb Republic, needs to be connected to a financial infusion
Simultaneously with the announcement of the financial good news, Denis Bečirović, the Bosnian member of the Bosnia and Herzegovina Presidency, also held negotiations with members of the Western Balkans Working Group of the European Parliament in Brussels.
Bečirović’s participation in the meeting caused significant disruption within the communication machinery of the Bosnian government coalition. This was because the member of the presidency asked the present EU representatives to impose further sanctions against Dodik, and he described the continuation of the disbursement of EU financial assets as a „terribly bad step.”
Regarding Bečirović’s stance against Dodik, it is worth noting that in previous years, he has repeatedly accused the top Bosnian Serb leader of separatist tendencies and violating the principles of the Dayton Agreement.
His recent actions were particularly uncomfortable for his own party, the Social Democratic Party (Socijaldemokratska Stranka, SDP), as this position completely contradicted the coalition government’s stance, including that of his own party, regarding EU funds.
Although there haven’t been similar levels of communication discord among some players within the five-party government coalition in the past, and the government seemingly continued its work uninterrupted, strong figures within the coalition parties often make comments that indicate underlying tension.
When it comes to separate communication, the SDP takes the lead, as several prominent members sharply criticize the work of the coalition partners organized on the basis of two ethnicities, the Bosnian Serb SNSD and the Croatian HDZ BiH.
The ‘unique word scattering’ observed in the communication of the SDP can be traced back to the fact that the Yugoslav state party’s successor organization in Bosnia, in addition to its traditional center-left orientation, has sought to broaden its support among progressive and neo-Marxist youth groups. These groups find it difficult to accept that the SDP, which represents a multiethnic and atheist approach they support, formed an alliance with the Bosnian Serb and Croatian conservative political forces that were continuously criticized in the previous cycle.
Dodik needs to pay (or should pay)
Regardless of the opening of EU funds, the economic situation of the Bosnian Serb Republic is difficult to assess positively.
The maturity dates of entity bonds issued on the London and Vienna stock exchanges are approaching, and their repayment will pose a significant burden on the budget of the Serb entity.
The numbers speak for themselves.
This year, the Serb entity has a bond-based debt obligation of approximately 1,099 million BAM (convertible mark), which amounts to 208 billion Hungarian forints. In addition, the government of the Bosnian Serb Republic has to pay an additional 900 million BAM (170 billion Hungarian forints) this year based on other commitments.
A significant portion of these obligations is related to certain infrastructure investments. From this year’s upcoming debt pile, a portion of the Bosnian Serb bonds issued on the Vienna Stock Exchange in previous years will mature in June. After this, the Serb entity will have to pay approximately 400 million BAM (75 billion Hungarian forints).
To ensure the financing of the mentioned debt, the Bosnian Serb Republic received a loan of 180 million BAM (34 billion Hungarian forints) from Hungary.
We have previously reported in detail about this transaction and the support program provided by the Hungarian government to Bosnian Serb agricultural entrepreneurs.
According to news reports in the Bosnian press, in order to continue rolling over the high external debt, Dodik may be preparing, or rather, be forced to take on another loan of approximately 2 billion BAM (380 billion Hungarian forints) in the near future.
Most analysts link this future transaction, which has so far been only speculation, to the Chinese development funds that are still leading in the Western Balkans region, due to the drying up of Russian resources. However, it is also possible that Dodik may once again knock on Budapest’s door for a little injection of funds.
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