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This is already too much even for dumplings: The sixth election may come within two years in Bulgaria
Ide kattintva meghallgathatod a cikket (kettő az egyben)President Rumen Radev has entrusted Mariya Gabriel, a representative of the GERB party which performed the best in the Bulgarian parliamentary elections on April 2nd, with the task of forming a government. The other parliamentary parties are not impressed with the candidate, and it is becoming increasingly likely that the country will hold its sixth legislative election within two years.
One question remains
Why? Recent elections have shown that no single party could secure a sufficient majority to form a functional coalition government.
In the past two years, two different solutions emerged. One involved several parties with divergent ideologies coming together, only to find out a few months later that a forced marriage cannot work, even if divorce means losing power.
This was the case for the pro-European, EU-supporting Prime Minister Kiril Petkov, whose party, „Continuing the Change,” barely lasted six months in the prime minister’s seat.
The second, much simpler scenario was that forming a government became impossible altogether, saving the effort of submitting a vote of no confidence before calling for new elections.
Currently, the second solution seems to be taking shape. President Rumen Radev, who has been the only stable figure in Bulgarian political life since January 2017, has entrusted Mariya Gabriel, a prominent representative of the GERB party, responsible for innovation and research at the European Commission, with the task of forming the government.
Gabriel spoke about her intention to create an expert government with a single goal: improving the quality of life for citizens.
However, the opposition and likely a large portion of the population are not thrilled about GERB forming a government. The real leader of the party, Boyko Borissov, who previously worked on improving the quality of life for citizens as Prime Minister, was only focused on benefiting himself and his close allies—known as corruption—which eventually led to his downfall amidst escalating bribery scandals.
Politics – the art of the impossible?
Borissov probably has a strong desire to become Prime Minister again, but he knows that in the current parliamentary composition, where his party barely received more than a quarter of the votes, he has no chance.
That’s why he has proposed the formation of various ‘expert’ governments or unity governments several times, but the opposition has not yielded thus far.
Petkov and the leaders of the second-strongest parliamentary party firmly ruled out any cooperation with Borissov’s GERB, and it seems that even smaller factions believe that joining forces with GERB would only harm their future prospects.
The problem is that while other parliamentary parties could avoid GERB, these alliances have proven to be short-lived in the past. Additionally, the nationalist and partly pro-Russian factions have gained strength, which the ‘Continuing the Change’ party is also unwilling to cooperate with.
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Gabriel now has one week to find partners and ministerial candidates, and if she fails, Petkov’s party may attempt to form a government.
The only glimmer of optimism may lie in the fact that almost everyone is aware that even twenty more elections could be held, but given the current power dynamics, it is highly unlikely that any outcome would allow for the formation of a genuine and lasting parliamentary majority.
This might encourage the players in the political arena to set aside their personal and political differences and try to move the country forward.
Indications of this can be seen in the past few days, as statements about insurmountable differences between GERB and ‘Continuing the Change’ have become quieter. Public opinion pollsters are already gauging the level of societal support for such a coalition.
It’s not significant: only 29 percent of respondents would support the collaboration between the two parties, while 56 percent would oppose it. However, it is true that among voters, this is still the most popular coalition, with even fewer supporting the other possibilities.
Self-destructive
Some color has been injected into the political arena by Ivan Geshev, the Chief Prosecutor and a former ally of Borissov, who has come alive and is determined to complete his seven-year term that began in 2019.
A few days ago, Geshev became the target of an assassination attempt: a car bomb exploded near his vehicle, and the Chief Prosecutor accused Borissov and the political mafia that rules the country of carrying out the attack.
Geshev spoke of how his family members were almost victims, which is hardly believable since it was revealed that his wife and children were not even present at the scene.
Geshev’s car was not damaged by the alleged explosion, and an increasing number of people believe that the Chief Prosecutor staged the „assassination attempt” to gain some cheap popularity.
If the attack, if it even happened, backfired. More and more people are demanding the Chief Prosecutor’s resignation, as he has tarnished his office with the „story” about the attack. For now, Geshev is unwilling to step down and publicly tore apart a previously signed resignation statement.
Ide kattintva meghallgathatod a cikket (kettő az egyben)The European Commission has lifted the suspension it imposed last year on the disbursement of EU funds intended for the Bosnian Serb Republic. Milorad Dodik, the president of the Bosnian Serb entity, expressed his gratitude to his coalition partners for their support in this matter, while the entity he leads is experiencing worsening economic conditions. The upcoming repayment of bonds issued on the Vienna Stock Exchange this year may force Dodik to take on additional significant loans. It is possible that he will seek assistance in Hungary as well.
In Brussels, they loosened their grip
Milorad Dodik, the president of the Bosnian Serb Republic, achieved a significant result on Friday, as the EU revoked the suspension of EU-funded development projects in the Serbian entity.
The disbursement of EU funds intended for the Bosnian Serb Republic had been suspended since February last year, as the EU Commission sought to exert pressure on Dodik’s Independent Social Democrats Alliance (Savez Nezavisnih Socijaldemokrata, SNSD) due to their secessionist tendencies.
Although the European Union did not impose sanctions on Bosnian Serb political leaders at that time, the Commission ordered the freezing of all projects receiving EU support.
It was already known at the time of the halt in investments, mostly related to infrastructure development, that the Serbian entity, burdened by significant debt due to bonds issued on international stock exchanges, would not be able to compensate for the resulting shortfall from its own budget.
In May of this year, several Bosnian newspapers reported that the leadership of the Bosnian Serb Republic could be in trouble if they do not find new external funding to finance their accumulated external debt.
While the risk of technical bankruptcy is not discussed in Banja Luka, it can be assumed that the EU, in plain terms, „didn’t let Dodik off the hook” and resumed the disbursement of previously frozen financial assets.
According to experts knowledgeable in the Bosnian financial sector, the EU’s restart of programs has provided a lifeline to the otherwise grim state of the Bosnian Serb economy.
However, experts agreed that the influx of EU funds alone will not be sufficient to ensure the necessary growth for financing external debt. This is because its impact does not generate enough additional GDP growth in the Bosnian Serb Republic to break free from the debt spiral.
One may ask, why did Brussels yield?
The answer, according to many, is that this step was a significant gesture towards the Bosnian Serb region on the brink of international isolation and economic collapse.
Dodik, in turn, has only earned this by fulfilling the coalition agreement he made with the Croatian Democratic Community of Bosnia and Herzegovina (Hrvatska Demokratska Zajednica Bosne i Hercegovine, HDZ BiH) and the left-wing Bosnian party alliance known as the „troika” until now.
Troubles within the coalition arise
The importance of restarting EU programs is also reflected in Dodik himself expressing gratitude, in front of the press, to Elmedin Konaković, the Bosnian Minister of Foreign Affairs, for consistently keeping the issue of restarting frozen projects in the Serbian entity on the agenda during his visits to Brussels this year.
On the right, Elmedin Konaković, the Bosnian Minister of Foreign Affairs, plays the role of a helpful lobbyist, while on the left, Milorad Dodik, the president of the Bosnian Serb Republic, needs to be connected to a financial infusion
Simultaneously with the announcement of the financial good news, Denis Bečirović, the Bosnian member of the Bosnia and Herzegovina Presidency, also held negotiations with members of the Western Balkans Working Group of the European Parliament in Brussels.
Bečirović’s participation in the meeting caused significant disruption within the communication machinery of the Bosnian government coalition. This was because the member of the presidency asked the present EU representatives to impose further sanctions against Dodik, and he described the continuation of the disbursement of EU financial assets as a „terribly bad step.”
Regarding Bečirović’s stance against Dodik, it is worth noting that in previous years, he has repeatedly accused the top Bosnian Serb leader of separatist tendencies and violating the principles of the Dayton Agreement.
His recent actions were particularly uncomfortable for his own party, the Social Democratic Party (Socijaldemokratska Stranka, SDP), as this position completely contradicted the coalition government’s stance, including that of his own party, regarding EU funds.
Although there haven’t been similar levels of communication discord among some players within the five-party government coalition in the past, and the government seemingly continued its work uninterrupted, strong figures within the coalition parties often make comments that indicate underlying tension.
When it comes to separate communication, the SDP takes the lead, as several prominent members sharply criticize the work of the coalition partners organized on the basis of two ethnicities, the Bosnian Serb SNSD and the Croatian HDZ BiH.
The ‘unique word scattering’ observed in the communication of the SDP can be traced back to the fact that the Yugoslav state party’s successor organization in Bosnia, in addition to its traditional center-left orientation, has sought to broaden its support among progressive and neo-Marxist youth groups. These groups find it difficult to accept that the SDP, which represents a multiethnic and atheist approach they support, formed an alliance with the Bosnian Serb and Croatian conservative political forces that were continuously criticized in the previous cycle.
Dodik needs to pay (or should pay)
Regardless of the opening of EU funds, the economic situation of the Bosnian Serb Republic is difficult to assess positively.
The maturity dates of entity bonds issued on the London and Vienna stock exchanges are approaching, and their repayment will pose a significant burden on the budget of the Serb entity.
The numbers speak for themselves.
This year, the Serb entity has a bond-based debt obligation of approximately 1,099 million BAM (convertible mark), which amounts to 208 billion Hungarian forints. In addition, the government of the Bosnian Serb Republic has to pay an additional 900 million BAM (170 billion Hungarian forints) this year based on other commitments.
A significant portion of these obligations is related to certain infrastructure investments. From this year’s upcoming debt pile, a portion of the Bosnian Serb bonds issued on the Vienna Stock Exchange in previous years will mature in June. After this, the Serb entity will have to pay approximately 400 million BAM (75 billion Hungarian forints).
To ensure the financing of the mentioned debt, the Bosnian Serb Republic received a loan of 180 million BAM (34 billion Hungarian forints) from Hungary.
We have previously reported in detail about this transaction and the support program provided by the Hungarian government to Bosnian Serb agricultural entrepreneurs.
According to news reports in the Bosnian press, in order to continue rolling over the high external debt, Dodik may be preparing, or rather, be forced to take on another loan of approximately 2 billion BAM (380 billion Hungarian forints) in the near future.
Most analysts link this future transaction, which has so far been only speculation, to the Chinese development funds that are still leading in the Western Balkans region, due to the drying up of Russian resources. However, it is also possible that Dodik may once again knock on Budapest’s door for a little injection of funds.
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