The overwhelming success of the progressives in the Serbian elections both provincial and local

The Serbian Progressive Party achieved its largest success to date in the Serbian elections on December 17, led by Aleksandar Vučić, with nominal party leader Miloš Vučević nodding in approval. The victory was not announced by Vučević, but rather by Acting Serbian Prime Minister Ana Brnabić and Vučić himself, who had played a significant role in the campaign. Brnabić began the election night by stating that it was time to celebrate, revealing that, after counting 50% of the votes, the Progressives had secured 47.1% in the parliamentary elections, enough to form a government independently.

The announcement was met with sustained applause, as pre-election predictions had anticipated much lower support for the Serbian Progressive Party, estimating their vote share to be below 40%. The applause erupted particularly when Brnabić expressed gratitude to the Serbian president, Aleksandar Vučić, for allowing his name to be associated with the Progressive list. Meanwhile, the opposition was alleging brutal fraud.

Aleksandar Vučić secured an overwhelming victory

Since this announcement occurred in the early stages of the vote count, and the specific districts counted were unknown, it could be assumed that the results mentioned by Brnabić might undergo changes. Nevertheless, it was already evident that the Serbian Progressive Party and President Vučić were stronger than anyone inside or outside of Serbia had anticipated.

According to the Serbian Prime Minister, the Serbian Progressive Party secured 47.1% of the votes. As Serbia uses the d’Hondt system for calculating mandates, this theoretically provides sufficient support for an absolute majority, as Brnabić hinted at the end of her statement.

The Serbian Prime Minister also stated that the opposition, represented by the Alliance for Serbia Against Violence, received 23%, the Serbian Socialist Party only 6.5%, the People’s Voice list led by Dr. Branimir Nestorović secured 4.8%, and the Serbian Democratic Party and the POKS “Hope” (Nada) alliance calling for royal restoration finished in fifth place.

According to Brnabić, there will be an absolute majority (Source: Screenshot)

Brnabić suggested that there is a chance for the Dveri-Zavetnici (Doors-Oathkeepers) alliance to surpass the 3% threshold, as they strongly cling to it. Other parties, however, are likely to remain outside the parliament, except for minority groups, subject to different regulations. Therefore, the Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians is expected to send six or at least five representatives to the Serbian parliament.

By ten o’clock, the above results had solidified

CeSID and Ipsos released their initial lists shortly before ten o’clock, which largely mirrored Brnabić’s announcement, with the difference that the Progressives slipped by half a percentage point. This could potentially affect the absolute majority, but the final outcome was still awaited.

As these numbers came out with 72.6% of the votes counted, and proportionally smaller changes could be expected, it was already evident that Aleksandar Vučić had won the Serbian elections. These were not the results of the Serbian Progressive Party but of Vučić himself.

Initial analyst reactions pointed out that the Serbian president had created a system in the country where people always vote for him, not for the parties. Everything is personalized – power, party, and government.

Analysts also noted that the last parliamentary elections were held in parallel with the presidential elections, and the Serbian president focused on the latter. This resulted in a decline in the results of the Serbian Progressive Party. However, this time, the focus was on the success of the party, yielding positive results.

The Progressives won both Belgrade and Vojvodina

The Serbian president announced victory in the capital and the increasingly disregarded province of Vojvodina, only after exchanging pleasantries with Milorad Dodik, representing the Bosnian Serbs, and Andrija Mandić, representing the Montenegrin Serbs.

Vučić then declared through the microphone that the Serbian Progressive Party unequivocally won the elections in Belgrade, and in Vojvodina they achieved an overwhelming victory, securing nearly seventy out of the 120 parliamentary seats. In contrast, the opposition, represented by the Alliance for Serbia Against Violence, could only count on thirty mandates.

In Vojvodina, the Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians secured only 9 seats, the Serbian Socialist Party, with just 7 mandates, came fourth, and the Hope coalition (Nada) followed with 6 mandates. The Russian Party came behind them with 1 mandate, about which even the Serbian president was unsure “whether it is eaten or drunk”.

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Vučić added that based on this, the Serbian Progressive Party could be considered to have a “traditional alliance” with the Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians and possibly the Socialists, expected to have a 75% majority in the Vojvodina legislature.

The triumph was even greater when considering the votes of Kosovo Serbs, who gave 74.2% confidence to the Serbian Progressive Party, while the opposition Alliance for Serbia Against Violence received just over five percent.

In summary, by the end of Sunday, it became clear that Serbia either does not want changes or lacks sufficient information about what changes might bring and whether these changes would be beneficial for the country.

An expert on a TV show stated that a turnaround in Serbia could only occur in two cases: if the people become very fed up with the leaders or if the United States strongly wants to undermine the Serbian leadership. However, neither option seemed likely in this case.

Note

The Serbian opposition rejects the above results and has stated its intention to fight against election fraud using all available democratic means. This applies primarily to Belgrade but encompasses the entirety of Serbia, including Novi Sad and Subotica. This will be addressed in one of BALK’s upcoming articles.