In the rocket case, Serbia continues to deny it. Both the Serbian foreign minister and the defense ministry leader claim that Serbia did not officially supply rockets to Ukraine. Ivica Dačić, the Serbian foreign minister, stated that since the beginning of the Ukrainian war, Serbia has not exported or granted permission for the export of weapons and military equipment to Ukraine, Russia, or any country that may be considered “problematic” from an international standpoint. However, during the recent weapons transport scandal, no one claimed that there was direct export to Ukraine, and that permission was granted for this purpose. We are trying to outline how the deal went, about which probably none of the participants knew all the details.

Mostly enjoyed the cabbage

In 2018, the spokesperson for the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Maria Zakharova, was a featured guest at the Guča brass band festival in the company of Ivica Dačić, and she did not conceal how happy she was to “relax” in Serbia. 

Ivica Dačić was pleased to host the spokesperson, who, while listening to the brass bands, tried Serbian food specialties, with the meaty cabbage being her favorite.

Zaharova in good mood (Forrás: Blic)

Zaharova had so much fun that she even danced at least once.

However, this week, the Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson did not have the “urge to dance,” but rather to “give advice,” stating that Moscow expects an official explanation regarding the Serbian rockets sent to Ukraine.

As the Serbian foreign minister, Ivica Dačić was one of the officials responsible and, due to his acquaintance with Zakharova, may have felt it was his duty to respond, as they had “brassed” together in Guča five years ago.

Officially denied

Dačić also responded to the Russian foreign ministry spokesperson, in which he did reject the responsibility of the Serbian state but did not completely dispel the suspicion that some involvement by a Serbian arms dealer was possible.

During a Belgrade conference held by Serbian diplomats in recent days, Dačić stated that Serbia has not exported or given permission to export weapons or military equipment to Ukraine, Russia, or any country considered problematic from an international perspective, since the beginning of the Ukrainian conflict.

He suggested that if someone has information about this matter, then it is him because his ministry is involved in issuing export licenses.

However, Dačić added that he is talking about legal institutions that have export rights.

The signatory of the export permit (Screenshot)

The Serbian foreign minister is telling the truth, but the issue is not that simple, as the traces have been successfully erased, and it is uncertain whether the Belgrade government was aware of what was actually happening.

Recently, the Russian Mash news portal published a “confidential” Serbian export license issued on October 21, 2022, in Belgrade. However, the license was not issued by the Serbian Ministry of Foreign Affairs but by the Ministry of Trade, Tourism, and Telecommunications, on behalf of the signatory, State Secretary Stevan Nikčević.

However, this document did not authorize the export of Serbian rockets to Ukraine, and everyone involved seemed to be quite cunning.

Yet, there may be some manipulation even within the document itself, as the Turkish company Arca, previously defined as the end-user, is listed with a Turkish name as an intermediary, while the Turkish Defense Industry Agency is named as the end-user, which is probably a translation of Arca into Serbian, written in Cyrillic letters.

So, Arca likely acted as an intermediary for itself, but it is hard to believe that the signatory did not notice or know this.

The Serbian Minister of Foreign Affairs is certainly right in that the end user is not listed as Ukraine or Russia, but rather as a semi-Turkish state company, and the permit was not issued by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Based on these facts, it is also true that the Serbian state did not supply weapons to either Ukraine or Russia, and there are no permits/evidence to support that – someone else did it instead.

Earlier, the Serbian Defense Minister, Miloš Vučević, said in the Skupština (parliament) that Serbia does not export military equipment and weapons anywhere where it is not allowed, but added that “it is not Serbia's responsibility to determine whether private companies are buying and selling Serbian weapons to other countries' traders on third markets.”

Who was the proxy supplier?

If we interpret the above sentence, we can conclude that it might be about a company that is not under state supervision, but collaborates with a state-owned weapons factory. In this case, a privately owned weapons trader may be considered, whose company no longer acts on behalf of the Serbian state.

The “Western-oriented” Serbian opposition press suspects Slobodan Tesic, a Serbian arms dealer, and not without reason.

If we take a closer look at the export license, it states that the goods owner is not the Serbian state, nor the Serbian state-owned Krušik company, but Sofag doo (limited liability company), which according to Belgrade media reports, is owned by Slobodan Tesic's daughter.

Presumably, Krušik sold or handed over the weapons to Sofag, or Sofag took over the shipment in its name, which landed in Turkey, where, according to Serbian ministerial approval, it could only be used for military purposes.

Therefore, the Serbian state is clean in terms of formalities, the exported weapons/rockets did not belong to Serbia, nor were they sold by Serbia or Serbian state-owned arms trading companies. According to the documents, Serbia did not supply weapons to either Ukraine or Russia, so the ministers were telling the truth, as we have already mentioned, or as stated in Belgrade, it is not Serbia's concern what private companies engaged in arms trading do.

Of course, the question may arise whether the Serbs knew what purpose the designated Turkish end-user (& intermediary) wanted to purchase the rockets for and what they intended to use them for. They were certainly not naive.

It is possible that they had no idea what the path of the rockets would be, although due to the proximity of the Ukrainian war, they may have had “some idea”.

Why did it become an issue?

Just one week after the anniversary of the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Kremlin-backed media reported that Serbia was allegedly selling weapons to the Ukrainian army.

The Mash (mash.ru) Russian portal recently posted a brief report without specifying its source, and the attached video featured unverified documents, claiming that Krušik, a Serbian defense industry company, had sold 3,500 artillery shells to the Ukrainian defense ministry.

Although the authenticity of the published documents could not be verified, no one from either the Russian or Serbian side disputed their authenticity. If we follow the events step by step, it becomes clear that a Canadian, Slovak, American, and Turkish company participated in this complicated arms delivery case.

Only Krušik protested, claiming that the “foamy story” in the media was incomplete and based on irrelevant information, which was extremely maliciously tried to…

Only Krušik protested, stating that the media's “inflated story” is incomplete and based on unrelated information, which maliciously attempts to place the Serbian company in a negative context. 

Krušik adds that there are contradictions in the published documents, including the alleged order of weapon sales and the names used. Regarding the latter, they note that the presented papers feature two names, M-21 GRAD and GRAD-200, with the latter being the label they use for the missiles they produce, but as they are not weapons experts, they will not go into that. 

“Since the beginning of the Ukrainian conflict, we have not entered into any contract for a missile or mine where the end-user has become a party to the conflict,” said the company in southern Serbia, which nonetheless did not claim that the documents were false. 

– said the company in southern Serbia, which nonetheless did not claim that the documents were false. 

According to the export permit, the end-user in question is not Ukraine, nor does a Ukrainian company appear in it, but rather Turkish Arca, which then passed on the rockets without involving Ukrainian companies. 

Meanwhile, the BBC has determined that the workers seen in the video wear work clothes with the logo of Turkish company “S Sistem Logistics Services Co,” which has several warehouses in Turkey, including at the Istanbul airport, but according to its website, it has no location in Bratislava, so Mash's claim that the footage was shot in Bratislava can be questionable, but if we let our imagination go, we would not necessarily rule it out.

However, if we take a closer look at the Turkish shipping document, the recipient listed is Slovak MSM Novaky, whose role is not overly clear, as the Ukrainian Defense Ministry names itself as the end-user in the document it issued, along with exporter Arca and supplier American company Global Ordnance Trading, owned by Marc Morales, whose “thoughts, prayers, and ammunition” are with Ukraine, specifically with General Valery Zaluzhny. 

If we try to close the loop, we find that an American company bought Serbian weapons for the Ukrainians with some intermediate stops, which would not be unique since the Americans also bought Serbian weapons for the Iraqi army during the Iraq War.

What is Mash?

According to the BBC, Mash, the Russian news portal that exposed the arms shipment, is operated by News Media, the majority owner of which is Kremlin-affiliated Aram Gabrelyanov.

Mash is one of the Russian portals that glorify the Ukrainian invasion in the Russian media and on social media, such as Twitter.

In recent years, Gabrelyanov has been involved in managing various media channels whose work has been financed by the Russian state budget.

Last November (2022), together with two other journalists, they received a 450,000 euro grant from Russian President Vladimir Putin to launch new media projects in the separatist regions of Ukraine, namely the Donetsk and Luhansk “states”, which have since reportedly joined Russia.

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After a lengthy negotiation break, border modification and territory exchange between Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina may take place. This comes after the Bosnia and Herzegovina presidency accepted the proposal of a joint technical committee to consider changing the shared border with Serbia. The initiative aims to facilitate easier crossing of the border for Bosnia and the cancellation of Serbia's substantial debts to Bosnian settlements along the Drina river.

It has been almost thirty years in the making

All three members of the Bosnia and Herzegovina presidency approved the final report of the technical committee for border modification, which was appointed eight years ago.

The decision passed by the presidency will now go to the Council of Ministers (Vijeće Ministara), which represents the Bosnian government, to start the negotiation process with the appropriate Serbian authorities regarding the actual land exchange.

A Miniszterek Tanácsának épülete Szarajevóban (Forrás: Savamedia)

The technical committee, which belongs to the Bosnian Ministry of Civil Affairs (Ministarstvo Civilnih Poslova), has faced difficulties in the past decades due to the dynamic and often tense bilateral relationship between Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina. As a result, the committee was last able to hold a meeting in the presence of Serbian representatives in 2010.

The first significant moment in the over two-decade-long history of territory exchange between the two countries was reaching the agreement in 2002 between the political leaders of Belgrade and Sarajevo. The agreement laid the groundwork for later negotiations, following the principle of “kilometer for kilometer.”

Then there was a negotiating break that lasted for over a decade and a half, which Aleksandar Vucic broke in 2017 when he once again supported the modification of the border along the Drina river and advocated for the “meter for meter” principle, which would have allowed for smaller border corrections for a faster agreement.

Serbia would save through territory exchange

The Bosnian public is deeply divided even over the transfer of a small portion of their territory, especially considering that it was Serbia, their former enemy in the war, that initiated the transfer of certain areas along the Drina river.

The decision made by the Bosnia and Herzegovina presidency regarding territory exchange emphasizes the promotion of regional peace and stability. Another factor to consider is to align the border with the needs of the local population's way of life.

The Serbian government has been trying to convince its Bosnian partner for over a decade to exchange certain areas in four districts along the Drina river. The areas of the hydroelectric plants near Zvornik and Bajina Basta, as well as the 12-kilometer section of the railway connecting Belgrade and Bar in Bosnia and Herzegovina, are the most important for Belgrade.

The areas concerned together amount to 45 square kilometers, in exchange for which, according to international legal practice, an area of equivalent size and extent is usually offered.

Accepting the proposal of the Serbian government would represent a real novelty in Bosnian public life, as since the formation of the Western Balkan state in 1995, no territorial correction agreement has been concluded with any of its neighbors.

The Belgrade leadership is also guided by the need to operate the affected transportation and industrial facilities, as well as by the objective of saving money.

In the areas affected by the land swap, industrial facilities and transportation infrastructure were built during the Yugoslav period that partly fell into Bosnian territory following the demarcation of the border at the end of the Bosnian War, but they have since been operated by Serbian companies.

The essential element of the story is the “utilization,” or rather the monetary benefit, for which Serbia should pay an annual usage fee under the agreement in force between the two states. Currently, the Serbian state pays the annual land use fee to Bratunac, Rogatica, Višegrad, and Zvornik on the Bosnian side of the border.

In the mentioned cities, the Serbian Power Industry (Elektroprivreda Srbije) operates hydropower plants and related systems, but Serbia regularly fails to fulfill its payment obligations.

As a result, the Serbian side has now accumulated debts of more than one million euros with Zvornik and half a million euros with Višegrad. The goal of the Belgrade government is no secret – to avoid the payment of substantial debts and late interest payments to Bosnia and Herzegovina through the land swap.

However, the Bosnian professional press has called on its readers in a sufficiently malicious tone to refrain from speculative purchases of land along the Drina River for the time being, as it took twelve years to obtain a proposal from a committee supporting the presidency, and due to the highly sensitive political nature of the issue, the relevant state leaders of the two affected countries have not discussed this subject for two parliamentary terms.

They would also simplify the border crossing

Along with the land swap promoted by the Serbian government, the speeding up of border traffic between the two countries has also been on the bilateral negotiation agenda of the competent ministries for over ten years.

As a result of the expert committee's approved opinion, Denis Bečirović, a Bosnian Presidency member, proposed simplifying the border crossing between Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina. 

Belépés Szerbiába Bosznia-Hercegovina felől (Forrás: YouTube)

To the surprise of the Bosnian public, Željka Cvijanović, who represents the Serbian nation, unreservedly accepted Bečirović's proposal alongside Željko Komšić, who holds the position of a Croatian Presidency member.

As a result, in accordance with the presidency decision, the Bosnian Council of Ministers must begin drafting the relevant legislation and consult with the relevant Serbian state actors.

However, the future possibility of easier passage across the Drina River must still be treated with caution, as legislative procedures have become stuck in both the Council of Ministers and the Bosnian parliamentary horseshoe for many years.

In the extremely divided Bosnian political course, tensions can easily arise that could turn the issue of territorial exchange or facilitated border crossing into a political tool, and despite the encouragingly dynamic initial steps, it could be removed from the agenda.

Regarding border crossings and territorial exchanges, the open stance represented by Serbian Željka Cvijanović was surprising to non-Bosnian Serbian political actors, because in previous years, there was a unified position in the Bosnian Serb Republic on the issue that there can be no renegotiation of the rules of border crossing between Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina, as the two states concerned would have to reach an agreement without the involvement of the Serbian entity's leadership.

Furthermore, Bosnian Serbs considered the territorial exchange between the two countries unacceptable because the issue would be negotiated by the Bosnian state authorities with the Belgrade government.

In addition, changing the territory of the Serbian entity without the approval of local leaders would be a clear indication that the Bosnian Serb Republic is not an independent international legal entity in the confused system of the Dayton Agreement, even if its leaders try to act that way.

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The Serbian president attending at IDEX 2023 international arms fair in Abu Dhabi announced that Serbia is buying suicide drones from the United Arab Emirates, and the contract will be signed with the relevant officials there within 48 hours. The Serbian pro-government Informer called it excellent news in the headline of its report on the fair. Meanwhile, the Serbs also negotiated the sale of their own weapons in the UAE, with one potential buyer being Cyprus, but there is clearly a long line of interested parties, as the Arab world traditionally represents a receptive market for Serbian arms production.

Arab suicide drones are coming

Aleksandar Vucic spoke about this after Emirati President Muhammad Bin Zayed Al Nahyan visited the Serbian military stand, which greatly moved the Serbian President.

– Vucic wrote on his Serbian presidential Instagram account, while also being elated that the Emir spent half an hour at the Serbian stand.

The visit is likely to be related to Vucic's announcement that a contract will be signed within 48 hours, under which Serbia will purchase “suicide drones” from the United Arab Emirates.

No figures have been mentioned yet, neither unit price nor quantity of “kamikaze drones” to be procured, all that is known is that these weapons will soon be delivered to Serbia.

– the Serbian president stated.

It is not yet clear what role the emirates and possibly China, which previously helped produce the first Serbian drone, will play in the production of Serbian suicide drones.
More details will be revealed after a negotiation between the Serbian delegation and the Emirati foreign minister this evening.

Must arm, no choice to live

The Serbian President believes that his country's army needs to be strengthened because the surrounding countries are becoming increasingly stronger, and also because the statements of the Russian president do not bode well.

– said Vučić, who believes that “as expected,” significant changes will be visible on the battlefield within one or two days, but significant changes are also expected in political actions related to Serbia from the Western side, as well as other international factors, although he did not name the Russians specifically.

The Serbian president also spoke about how the Emirates are satisfied with Serbian development projects, but added that 30 percent of the weapons produced by the Serbian defense industry must be kept at home, which means a 10 percent increase in arming the Serbian army.

The Serbian president visiting the United Arab Emirates was received with a guard of honor (Source: Serbian presidential Instagram)

– said the Serbian president, who also mentioned that there is a huge demand for weapons, and the Serbian defense industry can literally sell anything now and in the future, especially when it comes to ammunition and mines, that is, anything with an explosive charge.

In this regard, he noted that wage growth is expected in the Serbian defense industry, “because everyone wants to fight, and everyone is preparing for war,” so everything they produce is in high demand.

Serbia is currently negotiating with Cyprus to supply weapons to the island nation, but the line is expected to be long, as noted in the introduction.

The Russians skyrocketed production

The Serbian president has been at the Abu Dhabi military equipment fair for the second day, where he made “strong statements” on Monday, probably under the influence of the environment.

He said Serbia is spending 300 million euros on weapons purchases, which is topped up with another 90 million euros according to this year's financial plan.

– justified the Serbian president, who believes this will be a significant jump from the current 2.3 percent share.

The Serbian president also urged as many boys and girls as possible to join the Serbian army (based on the current application), because the basic salary will be 220,000 dinars (1,875 euros), so the monthly wage, along with various supplements, can exceed 2,000 euros, which is double or triple the salary of those working in education or healthcare, but these are the times we live in.

Vučić noted that with a general arms race underway in the world, Serbia is doing nothing more than spending a lot on its army because, in his opinion, the Serbian army must be stronger today, incomparably stronger than before.

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