MISERY: Despite Elections, Nothing Will Change in Serbia

Even before the early parliamentary elections have been officially announced, it can already be predicted that there will be no changes in Serbia following the upcoming contest. In an interview with Prva Televizija on Thursday evening, the Serbian president confirmed that the elections will be held on December 17, and we can be entirely certain of this because, as the Republic’s president, he has the authority to call parliamentary elections. At least, that’s what he said, but it’s still advisable to be cautious.

Will the Progressives dominate the elections again?

According to the latest survey by the Faktor Plus public opinion research agency conducted between October 5 and 11, the ruling Serbian Progressive Party is expected to capture 44.5% of the votes on December 17, if the elections were held today.

In the survey, which doesn’t concern Kosovo, the far-right coalition of Dveri and Zavetnici (Oathkeepers) takes second place, with 11% of the support from the 1,200 respondents involved.

It is clear that the Serbian voter base is leaning quite nationalist, and the “Kosovo issue” will be emphasized even more during the election campaign, where the government holds a significant advantage, though the others aren’t to be underestimated.

However, it’s unlikely that the Serbian Progressive Party will change its coalition partner, so they will likely continue to govern alongside the Serbian Socialist Party, which is expected to come in third.

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The leader of the socialists, Ivica Dačić, who was born in Kosovo, was strongly against early elections when the question was raised by the government. At the time, it was the Serbian president who wanted the elections, but in May, he did not provide an exact date, only suggesting that he would call for the elections within a few months.

From all this, it can be inferred that with the announcement of the December 17 elections, the Serbian president is not fulfilling the desires of the opposition, but instead pursuing his own interests.

Those who won’t make it to the podium

According to current surveys, there are three more parties that could pass the 3% parliamentary threshold and won’t have to wait for another round of elections.

Among the opposition parties that are referred to as pro-European, the Party of Freedom and Justice could perform the best with 8.1%, potentially securing the fourth place.

Behind them, the Serbian People’s Movement is polling at 5.9%, although it is a two-faced party, combining European ideals with strong nationalist policies on the Kosovo issue, which might be labeled as a form of  national policy.

The Serbian Coalition NADA, polling at 4%, could come in sixth place, strengthening the nationalistic right-wing camp on the sidelines.

Adding and subtracting, it becomes evident that the proportion of those supporting the European option in the next Serbian parliament barely exceeds 10%, while approximately 15% of “democratic” votes will go to parties receiving less than 3%.

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In the category of those who might still have a chance are the long-established Democratic Party (DS), the liberal-minded Movement of Free Citizens , and the party known as “The Unleashed Minister” Rade Basta’s European Path. This confirms our strong opinion that it won’t be Basta who leads Serbia into the European Union, not even close.

In light of this, it raises the question of why the Serbian opposition demanded early elections. Although there are four or five personalities in the opposition ranks, none of them have reached a charismatic level. To achieve better results than before, they would need to compete with the media and the frequent elections against the progressive and government structures.

Therefore, the early parliamentary elections on December 17 will likely bring more struggle for the opposition to figure out where the new chance went, which wasn’t a genuine opportunity in the first place.