BOILING POSITIVE MOOD: Greek-Turkish Rapprochement?

While Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan impressed the Western public with bombastic announcements at the NATO summit in Vilnius – namely, his support for Sweden’s accession and Ukraine’s NATO membership – the meeting between the freshly re-elected Greek Prime Minister, Kyriakos Mitsotakis, and him received far less press coverage. According to pictures and a brief report from the meeting, amidst a positive mood in recent months, the development of relations will benefit both countries. The two foreign ministers have been entrusted with managing the process, and they are scheduled to meet this summer, with plans for a joint government meeting in Thessaloniki in the autumn. In the meantime, it is expected that the two leaders will also hold discussions during the United Nations General Assembly in New York in September.

The relationship turned confrontational

The joint government meeting is almost historic, as since its introduction in 2010, the parties have only met four times, most recently during the migration crisis in March 2016, in Izmir.

However, since 2016, relations have deteriorated significantly, and this was not significantly influenced even when the conservative Mitsotakis succeeded the ultra-leftist Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, with whom Erdogan might have found it easier to reach a modus vivendi.

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On the other hand, since the autumn of 2019, there have been successive diplomatic disputes between the two countries, starting with the special economic zones in the eastern Mediterranean and the extension of Turkish jurisdiction to the territorial waters, continuing in 2020 with a short but spectacular migration crisis near the land border in the region of Edirne, and culminating in almost an armed conflict in August of that year.

EU sanctions and pressure from major powers have set a limit to further escalation, but confrontational messages have remained on the agenda in the coming years, especially concerning the demilitarization of Greek islands in the Aegean and the waters in front of Anatolia.

Many thought that, as both countries would hold elections in 2023, the creation of a more serious diplomatic conflict could be an item on the agenda, serving the interests of the two leaders.

However, this scenario was ultimately swept off the table by the earthquakes in southeastern Turkey on February 6, as Athens provided rapid and highly visible assistance, evoking memories of its selfless support during the Izmit earthquake in 1999. As photos of Greek rescue teams spread through Turkish social media, the governmental tone towards Greece softened.

High-level meetings were initiated, which were soon given a new, sad urgency by another disaster: a train accident on February 28 that claimed 57 lives.

Boiling positive mood

The meeting between the two leaders in Vilnius, the first in 16 months, can indeed give cause for optimism, although there are still plenty of disagreements.

Mitsotakis had to explain himself shortly thereafter, as according to him, there was no mention of the Muslims living in Western Thrace during the conversation, contrary to what Erdoğan stated, claiming it would have been the main topic.

According to the Turkish President, he would like the Muslim community – consisting of Turks, Pomaks, and Roma – to be able to choose its religious leaders, rather than have them appointed by the state.

On the other hand, the Greek Prime Minister sees the activities of the Turkish consulate in the affected province as an issue, as he objected to the consulate’s support for the leftist Syriza.

So, even in the midst of the currently boiling positive mood, the back-and-forth exchange is expected to continue in the coming months.

The fragility of the current reconciliation is demonstrated by the fact that the leaders have mostly swept serious issues under the carpet, such as the situation of minorities, the delimitation of territorial waters, airspace, and the demilitarization of islands, just to mention a few important topics.

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Mitsotakis, in any case, would like to quickly resolve the issue of the special economic zones (EEZ) and the question of disputed maritime borders.

However, this is likely to be the toughest challenge since Turkey is not a party to the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, nor has it shown much inclination to sign it. Nevertheless, they could still agree bilaterally on issues concerning both the Aegean and the Mediterranean, but Erdogan certainly does not want to return home empty-handed if an agreement is reached.

The United States could also provide assistance in resolving or at least maintaining a positive course in Greek-Turkish relations.

According to preliminary expectations, the U.S. Congress will decide simultaneously on the allocation of promised F-16s to Ankara and whether Athens will get the green light for the acquisition of F-35 fighter jets.

The gestures made by both parties and the support for negotiations, even if they don’t lead to a breakthrough, will likely signify a period of rapprochement between Greece and Turkey.