Ursula von der Leyen Skips Vučić Ahead of Serbia’s Election

No “dear Alexander” this time: the EU chief is leaving Belgrade off her Balkan tour

Állítsd be a Google‑t, hogy a BALK mindig kéznél legyen!

A week ago, BALK asked whether Ursula von der Leyen would still visit “dear Alexander” shortly before Serbia’s election, following the controversy surrounding Ratko Mladić’s funeral. Now the answer has arrived: the President of the European Commission is leaving Belgrade off her upcoming Western Balkans tour.

Brussels says the decision is due to the elections. Aleksandar Vučić, however, believes the EU has found an “elegant way” to cancel the visit. For his part, he says it is Serbian voters whose opinion matters to him.

Ursula von der Leyen will tour the Western Balkans from September 30 to October 2, but Belgrade will not be on the itinerary this time. The European Commission President is due to travel to Tirana, Pristina, Podgorica and Skopje, where she will meet national leaders and visit EU-funded projects.

The European Commission’s official explanation is that visits to Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina have been postponed because of upcoming elections in the two countries.

Bosnia and Herzegovina will hold general elections on October 4, while Serbia will hold a snap parliamentary election on October 25. According to the Commission, von der Leyen intends to visit both countries at a later date.

An “elegant” way to cancel the trip

The official explanation, then, is the election calendar. Aleksandar Vučić, however, reads somewhat more into the decision.

“The Carpathian Initiative offers an opportunity to open new channels of cooperation with countries in the region,” the Serbian president wrote on Instagram, adding that he hoped the opening of the Belgrade–Budapest high-speed railway would further improve Serbia’s connections with other countries in the region. (Source: Serbian presidential Instagram account)

The Serbian president commented on von der Leyen’s decision while attending the Carpathian Initiative summit in Ukraine. Vučić said the European Union had found an “elegant way” to say that the visit was being cancelled because of the elections.

“I think Ursula is too wise and intelligent to have illusions, or not to know what public opinion is like in Serbia. I am sure she knows very well,” the Serbian president said.

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Vučić’s remarks appeared to suggest that von der Leyen is well aware of attitudes towards the EU leadership in Serbia and that the election calendar may not tell the whole story.

In other words, it was Vučić himself who raised the possibility that other political considerations could lie behind the decision. The European Commission has said no such thing: Brussels officially attributes the postponement to the upcoming elections.

There are indeed opinion polls indicating considerable scepticism towards the European Union among Serbian voters. As always with polling, however, the methodology, timing and commissioning organisation matter when interpreting the results.

BALK raised exactly this question a week ago

The decision is particularly interesting because BALK raised precisely this possibility a week ago while reporting on the fallout from Ratko Mladić’s funeral in Belgrade.

We argued that if Ursula von der Leyen wanted to reinforce her critical words with a political gesture, she could choose not to visit Aleksandar Vučić immediately before Serbia’s election.

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BALK wrote at the time that the European Union’s Ursula could, for example, decide not to visit “dear Alexander” before the election and simply cancel the planned Belgrade stop.

The caption accompanying that article asked: “Will Ursula von der Leyen continue her warm encounters with Aleksandar Vučić?”

At least for the pre-election period, we now know the answer: not in Belgrade.

“Dear Alexander” will have to wait

The decision carries political significance because the public relationship between von der Leyen and Vučić has been conspicuously cordial in recent years. The Serbian president has repeatedly stressed his respect for the Commission President and his gratitude for the support Serbia has received from her.

Even amid the controversy following Mladić’s funeral, Vučić said he had nothing negative to say about either von der Leyen or António Costa because, in his view, both had treated Serbia fairly.

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The absence of a Belgrade stop has nevertheless prompted different political interpretations.

Dragan Đilas, leader of the Freedom and Justice Party and head of the European Serbia electoral list, argued that von der Leyen’s decision indicates that European institutions do not want her presence in Belgrade to be used by the authorities during the election campaign as a sign of support for Vučić.

Biljana Đorđević, co-president of the Green-Left Front, also welcomed the postponement, arguing that such a high-level visit immediately before the election would be problematic.

Đorđević noted on X that von der Leyen had also visited Belgrade shortly before the 2023 election campaign, and argued that a visit at the very end of the current campaign would be particularly controversial.

A gesture after the words

Last week, the question was whether von der Leyen’s strong words concerning the events surrounding Mladić’s funeral would be followed by a tangible political gesture.

On September 8, the Commission said only that it was examining possible consequences. At the same press briefing, its spokesperson did not disclose the precise itinerary of von der Leyen’s next Western Balkans tour.

Ten days later, we know that Belgrade is not on the Commission President’s itinerary, which means that “dear Alexander” will have to wait until October 25.

If, that is, Vučić manages to rig the election without making Brussels turn against him. He has survived accusations and controversies surrounding Serbian elections before.

But this time the situation is different. This is new territory.