Turkey in Turmoil: Erdoğan’s Challenger in Prison – But Why?

Yesterday, the mayor of Istanbul, Ekrem İmamoğlu, was arrested and removed from office, and a government trustee (kayyum) was appointed to lead one of the opposition-held districts. Many expect that in the coming days, the administration of the metropolis, which contributes thirty percent of Turkey’s GDP, will also be taken over by a government trustee, despite the fact that both the opposition-led city and the entire country are in turmoil following these events.

They Stood Behind Him as One

Last week, Turkey undoubtedly experienced eventful days: on Wednesday, authorities detained Ekrem İmamoğlu, the mayor of Istanbul from the largest opposition party, the secular-leftist Republican People’s Party (CHP) founded by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, along with more than 100 opposition politicians, journalists, and businessmen.

Two main charges were brought against the mayor (although there had been previous proceedings in past years, including for criticizing various state institutions or their leaders), which this time were considered more „serious” in the eyes of the authorities: on the one hand, corruption, and on the other, support for a terrorist organization (in this case, the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, PKK).

The detention sparked the largest street demonstrations in Turkey in recent years. Hundreds of thousands gathered in the largest cities, and people in smaller, central Anatolian towns also took to the streets, demanding the government’s resignation and the release of the mayor.

Istanbul is indeed a large metropolis, suitable for large protests (Source: X platform)

The opposition has essentially (at least so far) united behind İmamoğlu, calling the events politically motivated. Despite assembly bans and clashes with police — with the use of tear gas and water cannons — the mostly left-wing youth crowds persisted and strongly voiced their dissent in recent days.

Even if their voices alone were not enough, international markets reacted nervously to these political developments: the stock market plummeted, the lira weakened, and only by spending part of the central bank’s dollar reserves could the lira be somewhat stabilized.

For illustration: on Tuesday, the dollar was worth 36 lira, then on Wednesday it rose above 41 lira, and at the time of writing these lines, it’s close to 37 lira. The central bank had to intervene decisively, purchasing nearly 12 billion dollars’ worth of lira — and further measures will likely be needed to prevent more decline. Nevertheless, Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek tried to reassure the markets in his Sunday evening message on X, stating that the economic leadership has the situation under control.

Why Was He Arrested?

But what was the reason for the mayor’s arrest? A large portion of the Turkish public and the majority of analysts believe that — taking advantage of a favorable international climate (Trump has good relations with Erdoğan, who thus has a free hand, and the EU is preoccupied with its own matters) — it was politically motivated. Meanwhile, the pro-government media is emphasizing the severity of corruption allegations against CHP politicians and pointing to the alleged $100 million financial support from the PKK — a fierce battle is underway to win over Turkish public opinion.

The CHP, whose then-party leader and “opposition top candidate” Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu narrowly lost to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in the 2023 presidential election, was preparing to field a much more popular candidate for the next election in 2028 (or possibly earlier, in a snap election).

A world turned upside down — police brutality in Turkey

Two realistic contenders were identified for this role: the mayors of Istanbul and Ankara. In February, the party leadership decided that on Sunday, March 23 (i.e., yesterday), they would hold a primary election not only among CHP members but open to all Turkish citizens; from several candidates, only one remained on the ballot — Ekrem İmamoğlu.

Thus, essentially three years before the presidential election, the CHP sought to secure their already popular challenger and to hold a kind of referendum on regime change — something that, given İmamoğlu’s charisma and the still difficult economic situation, large segments of society would have supported.

In this situation, a committee meeting at Istanbul University decided last Tuesday, citing technical reasons, to revoke 28 diplomas — including İmamoğlu’s — preventing him from becoming a presidential candidate, as a diploma is required. This decision would have barred him from running, and the next day he was detained on the charges previously mentioned.

A Civil Coup Seasoned with Imprisonment

What the opposition calls a “civil coup” turned into formal arrest on Sunday morning, although only regarding the corruption case; regarding the terrorism charge, although there is “strong suspicion,” they did not see grounds for further action at this stage.

The judiciary seems to have retreated, which the opposition considers a victory. Moreover, the CHP primary took place on Sunday with unexpectedly high turnout: İmamoğlu received nearly 15 million votes, approximately 20 percent of the estimated 65 million eligible voters.

Musical protesters and countless police officers

Although this number would not suffice for an outright presidential victory, under the circumstances, it was a large turnout: many people were unaware or did not think that non-CHP members could also vote (in fact, the 15 million votes exceed the CHP’s total by more than a million compared to the 2023 elections).

At the large demonstration held Sunday night in front of the Istanbul mayor’s office — from which police cleared students during the night — CHP leader Özgür Özel called for early elections. İmamoğlu’s wife, Dilek İmamoğlu, also spoke; though the future is uncertain, it is possible that beyond her husband and party politics, she will become the face of this movement.

Order in the Streets

Of course, even the author of these lines does not have a crystal ball. Much will depend on the scale of opposition protests (authorities have imposed travel restrictions to Istanbul, detained hundreds of people, banned hundreds of X accounts, and early Sunday morning prohibited opposition TV stations from broadcasting the demonstrations live). It remains to be seen whether the CHP or other forces will be able to manage the situation, and how the government will handle the growing political crisis.

The next few days will be critical. The possibility of appointing a government trustee remains on the table, and just as the Gezi Park protests in 2013 eventually lost momentum (with Erdoğan winning the presidency a year later), order in the streets could be restored by force at the right moment.

Related article

Turkish-Kurdish agreement on the horizon?

As in 2013, the Turkish president’s messages on X have called for order and an end to vandalism. Recently, pro-government voices in the media have even called the current CHP leadership or the entire party illegal (to address this situation, the party leader has called for an extraordinary party congress on April 6).

It is not yet possible to know how support for the ruling party and its allies will change, but what is certain is that the majority of the opposition has rallied behind İmamoğlu, now held in Silivri prison. Moreover, this opposition feels it has returned to power in the streets and public squares.

Not only could mass opposition demonstrations cause upheaval, but economic damage may also be considerable if international markets are not reassured and the lira continues to weaken, potentially triggering another spike in inflation — undermining the economic successes of recent years.

(The translation by artificial intelligence)