Bosznia
LEHALLGATJÁK: A boszniai államelnökség szerb tagja lehallgatja az amerikai nagykövetet

Milorad Dodik, a bosznia-hercegovinai elnökség szerb tagja egy Brčkóban tartott találkozón elmondta, hogy lehallgatják Michael Murphy amerikai nagykövetet. A kijelentés azt követően hangzott el, hogy az Amerika Hangján megjelent egy cikk, miszerint Oroszország titokban finanszírozta a boszniai szerb vezetőt.
Az amerikaiak által többszörösen szankcionált Milorad Dodik egy a brčkói pártgyűlésen azzal a kijelentéssel derítette jókedvre a hallgatóságot, hogy lehallgatják az amerikai nagykövetet.
– Most már mi is lehallgatjuk őket, nem csak ők hallgatnak le minket. Tudom, miről beszélnek. Ez öt-hat évvel ezelőtt nem volt lehetséges. Gondolni sem mertél rá, hogy lehallgatod az amerikai nagykövetet, most meg csak rákattintunk. Mi is tudjuk, hogy mit csinál. Mi vagyunk az állam
– hallható azon a videón, amelyet a Dodik által gyűlölt Istraga.ba hozott nyilvánoságra. Egyelőre nem világos, hogy a bosnyák portál miként jutott hozzá a felvételhez.
A rövid videó szerint a jelenlévők jót derültek a kijelentésen, amely szinte egyidőben hangzott el azzal, hogy az említett amerikai nagykövet Dragan Lukač boszniai szerb belügyminiszterrel és Siniša Kostrešević rendőrfőkapitánnyal találkozott, és a boszniai szerb köztársaság biztonsági helyzetéről, a jogállamiságról és a korrupció elleni küzdelem fontosságáról tárgyalt velük.
A balkáni hálózattal rendelkező és általában jól informált N1 hírcsatorna megjegyezte, hogy Dodik nem első alkalommal beszél a lehallgatásokról, 2020 májusában a boszniai szerb parlamentben ugyanis megemlítette, hogy lehallgatják Draško Stanivuković Banja Luka-i polgármestert, és az ellenzék többi tagját.
Dodik és az Istraga kapcsolata
A Brčkói Körzet – ahol az amerikai nagykövettel kapcsolatos kijelentés elhangzott – Bosznia- Hercegovina különleges jogállású területe az ország északkeleti részén, a Száva partján.
Ezzel szemben Dodik úgy tekint a városra, mint a boszniai Szerb Köztársaság részére, ezért azt szeretné, hogy Brčkót autópálya kösse össze a tőle nyugatra lévő Banja Lukával és a keletre lévő Bijeljinával, annak folytatásaként pedig Szerbiával.
Brčko jogi státusának megváltoztatása nyilván csak a daytoni szerződés megváltoztatása által lenne lehetséges.

English
Dodik travels to Moscow, yet receives money from the European Union

The European Commission has lifted the suspension it imposed last year on the disbursement of EU funds intended for the Bosnian Serb Republic. Milorad Dodik, the president of the Bosnian Serb entity, expressed his gratitude to his coalition partners for their support in this matter, while the entity he leads is experiencing worsening economic conditions. The upcoming repayment of bonds issued on the Vienna Stock Exchange this year may force Dodik to take on additional significant loans. It is possible that he will seek assistance in Hungary as well.
In Brussels, they loosened their grip
Milorad Dodik, the president of the Bosnian Serb Republic, achieved a significant result on Friday, as the EU revoked the suspension of EU-funded development projects in the Serbian entity.
The disbursement of EU funds intended for the Bosnian Serb Republic had been suspended since February last year, as the EU Commission sought to exert pressure on Dodik’s Independent Social Democrats Alliance (Savez Nezavisnih Socijaldemokrata, SNSD) due to their secessionist tendencies.
Although the European Union did not impose sanctions on Bosnian Serb political leaders at that time, the Commission ordered the freezing of all projects receiving EU support.
It was already known at the time of the halt in investments, mostly related to infrastructure development, that the Serbian entity, burdened by significant debt due to bonds issued on international stock exchanges, would not be able to compensate for the resulting shortfall from its own budget.
In May of this year, several Bosnian newspapers reported that the leadership of the Bosnian Serb Republic could be in trouble if they do not find new external funding to finance their accumulated external debt.
While the risk of technical bankruptcy is not discussed in Banja Luka, it can be assumed that the EU, in plain terms, „didn’t let Dodik off the hook” and resumed the disbursement of previously frozen financial assets.
According to experts knowledgeable in the Bosnian financial sector, the EU’s restart of programs has provided a lifeline to the otherwise grim state of the Bosnian Serb economy.
However, experts agreed that the influx of EU funds alone will not be sufficient to ensure the necessary growth for financing external debt. This is because its impact does not generate enough additional GDP growth in the Bosnian Serb Republic to break free from the debt spiral.
One may ask, why did Brussels yield?
The answer, according to many, is that this step was a significant gesture towards the Bosnian Serb region on the brink of international isolation and economic collapse.
Dodik, in turn, has only earned this by fulfilling the coalition agreement he made with the Croatian Democratic Community of Bosnia and Herzegovina (Hrvatska Demokratska Zajednica Bosne i Hercegovine, HDZ BiH) and the left-wing Bosnian party alliance known as the „troika” until now.
Troubles within the coalition arise
The importance of restarting EU programs is also reflected in Dodik himself expressing gratitude, in front of the press, to Elmedin Konaković, the Bosnian Minister of Foreign Affairs, for consistently keeping the issue of restarting frozen projects in the Serbian entity on the agenda during his visits to Brussels this year.

On the right, Elmedin Konaković, the Bosnian Minister of Foreign Affairs, plays the role of a helpful lobbyist, while on the left, Milorad Dodik, the president of the Bosnian Serb Republic, needs to be connected to a financial infusion
Simultaneously with the announcement of the financial good news, Denis Bečirović, the Bosnian member of the Bosnia and Herzegovina Presidency, also held negotiations with members of the Western Balkans Working Group of the European Parliament in Brussels.
Bečirović’s participation in the meeting caused significant disruption within the communication machinery of the Bosnian government coalition. This was because the member of the presidency asked the present EU representatives to impose further sanctions against Dodik, and he described the continuation of the disbursement of EU financial assets as a „terribly bad step.”
Regarding Bečirović’s stance against Dodik, it is worth noting that in previous years, he has repeatedly accused the top Bosnian Serb leader of separatist tendencies and violating the principles of the Dayton Agreement.
His recent actions were particularly uncomfortable for his own party, the Social Democratic Party (Socijaldemokratska Stranka, SDP), as this position completely contradicted the coalition government’s stance, including that of his own party, regarding EU funds.
Although there haven’t been similar levels of communication discord among some players within the five-party government coalition in the past, and the government seemingly continued its work uninterrupted, strong figures within the coalition parties often make comments that indicate underlying tension.
When it comes to separate communication, the SDP takes the lead, as several prominent members sharply criticize the work of the coalition partners organized on the basis of two ethnicities, the Bosnian Serb SNSD and the Croatian HDZ BiH.
The ‘unique word scattering’ observed in the communication of the SDP can be traced back to the fact that the Yugoslav state party’s successor organization in Bosnia, in addition to its traditional center-left orientation, has sought to broaden its support among progressive and neo-Marxist youth groups. These groups find it difficult to accept that the SDP, which represents a multiethnic and atheist approach they support, formed an alliance with the Bosnian Serb and Croatian conservative political forces that were continuously criticized in the previous cycle.
Dodik needs to pay (or should pay)
Regardless of the opening of EU funds, the economic situation of the Bosnian Serb Republic is difficult to assess positively.
The maturity dates of entity bonds issued on the London and Vienna stock exchanges are approaching, and their repayment will pose a significant burden on the budget of the Serb entity.
The numbers speak for themselves.
This year, the Serb entity has a bond-based debt obligation of approximately 1,099 million BAM (convertible mark), which amounts to 208 billion Hungarian forints. In addition, the government of the Bosnian Serb Republic has to pay an additional 900 million BAM (170 billion Hungarian forints) this year based on other commitments.
A significant portion of these obligations is related to certain infrastructure investments. From this year’s upcoming debt pile, a portion of the Bosnian Serb bonds issued on the Vienna Stock Exchange in previous years will mature in June. After this, the Serb entity will have to pay approximately 400 million BAM (75 billion Hungarian forints).
To ensure the financing of the mentioned debt, the Bosnian Serb Republic received a loan of 180 million BAM (34 billion Hungarian forints) from Hungary.
We have previously reported in detail about this transaction and the support program provided by the Hungarian government to Bosnian Serb agricultural entrepreneurs.
According to news reports in the Bosnian press, in order to continue rolling over the high external debt, Dodik may be preparing, or rather, be forced to take on another loan of approximately 2 billion BAM (380 billion Hungarian forints) in the near future.
Most analysts link this future transaction, which has so far been only speculation, to the Chinese development funds that are still leading in the Western Balkans region, due to the drying up of Russian resources. However, it is also possible that Dodik may once again knock on Budapest’s door for a little injection of funds.
-
Koszovó4 nap telt el azóta
KOSZOVÓI ELNÖK: Szerbiának nincs helye az európai nemzetek között, plusz 1 kecske
-
English6 nap telt el azóta
HYPOCRITICAL PROTEST: 52 Serbian and 41 KFOR soldiers injured in Kosovo, including Hungarians
-
Szerb Köztársaság2 nap telt el azóta
Dodik Moszkvába utazgat, mégis kap pénzt az Európai Uniótól
-
Szlovákia4 nap telt el azóta
GLOBSEC 2023: Szlovák biztonságpolitikai fesztivál, amelyre az egész világ odafigyelt